{"id":2201,"date":"2024-01-27T10:41:05","date_gmt":"2024-01-27T10:41:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ecosocialist.scot\/?p=2201"},"modified":"2024-01-27T10:41:05","modified_gmt":"2024-01-27T10:41:05","slug":"usa-election-2024-deform-dysfunction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ecosocialist.scot\/?p=2201","title":{"rendered":"USA Election 2024: Deform & Dysfunction"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Editors of USA socialist journal ‘Against the Current’ write on the forthcoming US Presidential election.<\/em><\/p>\n

IN A POLARIZED, angry, anxiety-and-crisis-ridden United States of America, wide swathes of a fragmented and divided electorate find common ground at least on what they don\u2019t want: a 2024 repeat of a presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Yet eleven months in advance \u2014 subject to change, but not easily \u2014 that spectacle is just what we\u2019ll get.<\/p>\n

Such a prospect, along with Trump\u2019s criminal trials and Biden\u2019s policy stumbles, may help explain a peculiar popular climate of simultaneous political agitation and apathy. Many millions of voters including working-class people (aside from Trump cult loyalists) will find themselves voting for presidential candidates and political parties they despise the least, not for choices they actually like.<\/p>\n

This malaise, rather than any hopeful excitement, also accounts for why the anti-vax and racist certified crackpot candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is polling as high as 24% as an independent, or why the rightwing Democratic Senator Joe Manchin might undertake a \u201cNo Labels\u201d third-party campaign to \u201cmobilize the middle\u201d that could throw the election any which way.<\/p>\n

No one should underestimate what a revived Trump presidency might mean \u2014 with his operatives\u2019 overt, already promised concentration\/deportation camps to be constructed for asylum seekers, forced removals of students for pro-Palestinian activism, targeted attacks on the press, mass firings of government employees to be replaced by regime loyalists, wholesale pardons for the January 6 aspiring insurrectionists, and who-knows-what chaos in imperialist global management.<\/p>\n

The campaign of Trump\u2019s emerging leading Republican rival Nikki Haley has been endorsed (purchased) by the Koch Brothers\u2019 \u201cAmericans for Prosperity\u201d (Plutocracy) outlet. This represents an attempt to consolidate a grossly reactionary, but more establishment neoconservative alternative to the runaway criminality of Trump and his prospective second term. That option would surely have appeal to much of the U.S. capitalist ruling class. (One rightwing commentator, Nolan Finley in the\u00a0Detroit News,<\/i>\u00a0urges that Haley become the \u201cNo Labels\u201d candidate.)<\/p>\n

Activism and Ironies<\/h3>\n

To avoid a one-sided overly bleak portrayal, we should cite positive cases of social action that have made a difference. First, as we\u2019ve discussed frequently, is the labor activist revival, culminating in union contracts with big gains for auto workers, at UPS, and steps forward in organizing places like Tesla and Amazon.<\/p>\n

Second, at the present critical moment, is the outpouring in the streets demanding a ceasefire in Israel\u2019s war against Gaza and Palestine, which we discussed in our previous issue (ATC<\/i>\u00a0227, \u201cCatastrophe in Palestine and Israel: Apartheid on the Road to Genocide\u201d) and continue our coverage in the present issue.<\/p>\n

Third is the continuing popular revulsion against the cynical and deeply evil anti-abortion extremism of the right wing, which is prepared to sacrifice women\u2019s lives to the \u201cpro-life\u201d cause, along with book bans and state-level voter suppression measures.<\/p>\n

Such examples show that class and social movements continue \u2014 as also shown by \u00a0myriad state, local and community struggles, including around abortion, trans and housing justice among other issues. The fact that these are not generating much positive energy at the level of national electoral politics is one indication of a deformed and dysfunctional political system.<\/p>\n

In this space we will not attempt to prognosticate, or chew over polling data, or (for the moment) seriously approach the prospects of an independent progressive alternative. The latter, critically important possibility must be a topic for future in-depth discussion. Here we want to explore some of the multiple ironies at the beginning of the electoral season.<\/p>\n

If there\u2019s one policy arena where Biden-Harris admin\u00adistration should get at least passing marks and maybe some plaudits, it would be the general health of the post-pandemic economy. Yet that is exactly where polls show \u201cgreater confidence in the Republicans\u201d \u2014 whose policies have been the most blatantly to enrich-the-rich, impoverish-the-poor, and run-up-deficits while pretending to be fiscally responsible.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s an astonishing public-relations triumph of plutocracy posing as populism. Democratic pundits and operatives are visibly distressed that \u201cBidenomics\u201d fails to garner the approval it deserves. The reasons for this apparent anomaly go far beyond its mediocre \u201cmessaging.\u201d<\/p>\n

It\u2019s true that this administration came in with a Build Back Better program that had some inspiring, even transformative potential (even if much of it came cloaked in nationalist rhetoric about countering the rise of China). \u00a0As it emerged from the desk of Bernie Sanders and the ambitions of Green New Dealers, the program included some serious federal spending \u2014 on infrastructure and energy transition \u2014 amounting to something like half the annual military budget.<\/p>\n

Thanks to Senator Manchin among others, the best part of the program was trimmed back to what became the Inflation Reduction Act. For example, pandemic-relief subsidies that cut U.S. childhood poverty in half \u2014 a very significant accomplishment in this brutally unequal society! \u00a0ran out. Thus in Manchin\u2019s own state \u2014 according to official Census Bureau\u2019s estimates, West Virginia\u2019s child poverty rate \u2014 the highest in the nation \u2014 increased from 20.7% to 25.0% between 2021 and 2022.<\/p>\n

Most important, the measurable benefits of the recovery flow overwhelmingly to the high-income layers of the population, who need them the least. Folks at lower-middle income or less levels see very little if any difference in their daily lives.<\/p>\n

Inflation levels are well down from their brief eight-percent high point, but that still leaves prices of basic necessities far higher than they were \u2014 while the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest-rate hikes that were ostensibly needed to \u201ccurb inflation\u201d have themselves exacerbated a housing crisis that especially afflicts young people (and many limited-income senior citizens too).<\/p>\n

The cumulative result is that macroeconomic statistics for the moment look reasonably good, but for many tens of millions of people the real-life economy doesn\u2019t feel that way. That hurts the electoral prospects for an incumbent administration, i.e. for Biden in 2024 as it did for Trump in 2020.<\/p>\n

Further Irony: Demographics<\/h3>\n

If there\u2019s one factor that should be pushing the Republican Party toward permanent marginality even as it hurtles toward extreme-right lunacy, it\u2019s that the United States is demographically becoming no longer a \u201cwhite\u201d country, and that younger generations are each more diverse than the previous one.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s precisely young, African American and other non\u00adwhite and immigrant communities, and the LGBT and non-binary population, who are the front-line targets of white-supremacist, Christian-nationalist and religious-right ideologies that thoroughly dominate today\u2019s Republican Party \u2014 including of course the Trump cult but not only that sector.<\/p>\n

Yet it\u2019s precisely those younger, less white and less affluent sectors where the Democrats\u2019 presumptively overwhelming majorities are narrowing. Polls are showing nearly a quarter of African Americans preferring Trump over Biden, an astonishing (even if it turns out to be short-lived) index of disillusionment.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s happened?<\/i>\u00a0Mainly, we think it\u2019s that the Democrats have overpromised and under-delivered real change \u2014 in terms of racial justice, student debt relief, immigration reform, tackling climate change, and more. Partly too, it was only a matter of time until the feeling of relief from the (first) Trump nightmare wore off.<\/p>\n

To some extent, also, Biden\u2019s age and immovability present a bad look. But on key issues that are really hurting the Democrats\u2019 prospects in 2024, it\u2019s not Biden that\u2019s senile, but\u00a0American policy.<\/i><\/p>\n

This is particularly illustrated in the present Israeli genocidal war on Gaza. The crucial young sector of the Democrats\u2019 voter base is increasingly sympathetic to Palestine, alienated from the party\u2019s traditional unquestioning support of Israel, and no longer duped by feeble bleats about a long-dead \u201ctwo-state solution.\u201d The December 1 resumption of the full-scale Israeli offensive, along with escalating murderous military and settler violence, accelerates that deepening and absolutely necessary disgust with Washington\u2019s active complicity in the massacre.<\/p>\n

As for the Arab American and Palestinian communities, the fury over \u201cGenocide Joe\u201d Biden is difficult to describe if you haven\u2019t witnessed it. Leaders in communities like Dearborn, Michigan, a key to the Democratic success in 2020, are openly vowing \u201cwe will never vote for Biden again even if the alternative is worse.\u201d It\u2019s impossible to say right now how this feeling will translate into votes or non-votes next November \u2014 keeping in mind the maxim that \u201call politics are local\u201d \u2014 but the Democrats are willfully blind if they underestimate its importance.<\/p>\n

Another factor that will require close further attention is the flood of bipartisan money from AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) and rightwing sources to defeat progressive, pro-Palestinian congressional representatives like Rashida Tlaib (MI), Cori Bush (MO) and Ilhan Omar (MN) in their primaries. AIPAC has been promising to throw $20 million toward any candidate who\u2019ll challenge Tlaib. \u00a0Any Democratic leadership connivance in these efforts could have fatal electoral consequences.<\/p>\n

Immigration Crisis<\/h3>\n

Another issue bedeviling the Biden administration, clearly, is the immigration and asylum crisis. This is a powerful case of imperialism creating a problem it can\u2019t solve. The numbers of desperate refugees and asylum applicants seeking entry at the southern border are overwhelming U.S. and northern Mexican cities, towns and support networks attempting to shelter and feed them.<\/p>\n

The refugee crisis is a thoroughly bipartisan product of decades of destructive policies that we\u2019ve discussed in these pages: decades of \u201cfree trade\u201d that\u2019s wiped out much of family farming in Mexico, genocidal counterrevolutionary wars in Central America, economic sanctions that greatly contribute to the unraveling of Venezuela as well as Cuba, serial catastrophic interventions in Haiti, and more.<\/p>\n

Worst of all, 50 years of an insane U.S. \u201cwar on drugs\u201d could not have been more brilliantly designed to turn the drug trade over to violent criminal cartels while shattering lives and communities in North America. On top of all this, the escalating effects of climate change are wiping out means of subsistence such as, for example, coffee crops in Honduras. We\u2019ve noted before that desperate immigration journeys and calamities are global in scope, as the miseries in the Mediterranean and cruelties of the Italian, British and other European governments illustrate.<\/p>\n

This crisis eats away at domestic confidence in the Biden administration\u2019s grip on policy, even though it\u2019s not of their making \u2014 and even though the \u201calternative\u201d is the outright sadism of the Republicans.<\/p>\n

A freshly passed Texas law enables local police to arrest suspected \u201cillegals\u201d on any or no pretext, and local courts to initiate detentions and deportations. In usurping clear federal jurisdiction over immigration, this law is so blatantly unconstitutional in its application, and so fascistic in its implications, that only the prevailing White Supremacy Court of the United States (WSCOTUS) majority would seem likely to uphold it. (The ACLU is mounting court challenges before the law takes effect in February.)<\/p>\n

There remains one area where the right wing and the Republican Party seem determined to self-destruct: their drive to complete the banning and criminalizing of abortion in the United States. In one state after another, where the right to abortion comes to a choice by voters, it wins \u2014 decisively. The horrific implications of a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress will keep not only women but a big slice of the entire electorate on side with the Democrats. The Republican determination to continue a losing anti-abortion crusade is rooted in the centrality of that issue to the overall \u201cculture war\u201d assault on gender, racial and social literacy \u2014 in libraries, schools, college campuses, and everywhere else.<\/p>\n

That specter might, just barely, preserve the Democrats\u2019 grip on power after a looming 2024 election choice that hardly anyone outside the Trump cult actually wants. That\u2019s a pretty weak reed to grasp, and certainly nothing for a progressive left to bank on. The struggle for an alternative must look elsewhere, beginning with the rising activism we\u2019ve seen for labor, for Palestine, for immigration and reproductive justice!<\/p>\n

January-February 2024, Against The Current 228<\/p>\n

Originally published at: https:\/\/againstthecurrent.org\/atc228\/election-2024-deform-dysfunction\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Graphic from Against the Current, title: ‘The sequel – not by popular demand’<\/em><\/p>\n

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