{"id":1715,"date":"2023-02-16T20:50:25","date_gmt":"2023-02-16T20:50:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ecosocialist.scot\/?p=1715"},"modified":"2023-02-16T20:50:25","modified_gmt":"2023-02-16T20:50:25","slug":"sturgeon-quits-where-next-for-scotland","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ecosocialist.scot\/?p=1715","title":{"rendered":"Sturgeon quits \u2013 where next for Scotland?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nicola Sturgeon\u2019s resignation as First Minister of the Scottish Government and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated the news across Britain and even internationally, writes Mike Picken<\/em>.<\/p>\n

In one sense, the standing down of a political leader in what can be regarded as a small \u2018regional\u2019\/devolved government should hardly create many ripples.\u00a0 The fact that it was regarded as so significant speaks volumes about the current state of British politics.\u00a0 It overshadowed completely the fact that on the same day as Sturgeon resigned the main Scottish teachers\u2019 union, the Educational Institute of Scotland (EIS) representing over 80% of school teachers, voted unanimously to reject a 6% pay offer and reaffirmed two days of strike action on 28 February\/1 March that will close every Scottish state school and have a huge effect across the country.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Media glee<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

The mainstream British press and media, almost entirely unionist and conservative, greeted the resignation statement with uncontained glee \u2013 \u2018Huge boost to unionism<\/em>\u2019 shouted the Times; \u2018Sturgeon brought down by trans row<\/em>\u2019 and \u2018without her the SNP is nothing<\/em>\u2019 screamed the Daily Telegraph, \u2018house journal\u2019 of Britain\u2019s Conservative Party membership, in what must rank as one of the most inaccurate front pages in its history.\u00a0 \u2018Independence dream fades<\/em>\u2019 trumpeted the ‘i’ newspaper.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>The tabloid press charge was led by the Daily Mail with \u2018Sturgeon \u2026 dreams in tatters<\/em>\u2019 while Andrew Neil exclaimed \u2018Her Legacy of Failure<\/em>\u2019, all in block capitals of course. This is the paper that supported the fascist blackshirts.\u00a0 Even the supposedly liberal Guardian displayed its unionist credentials in talking about the SNP being \u2018thrown \u2026 into turmoil<\/em>\u2019.<\/p>\n

Across the globe, Donald Trump led the global reactionary charge describing Sturgeon as a \u2018crazed leftist<\/em>\u2019 and \u2018failed woke extremist<\/em>\u2019. Though in an indication of his grip on reality he also seemed more exercised at the \u00a315M loss made by his Scottish golf courses, blaming Sturgeon personally for their failure.<\/p>\n

Compared to the chaos of the recent resignations of UK Prime Ministers Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and the 49-day catastrophic reign of Liz Truss, Nicola Sturgeon\u2019s press conference in Edinburgh was a calm and controlled affair.\u00a0 She explained that after over eight years at the helm of the devolved Scottish government and nearly 30 years in front line politics in Scotland, she had simply had enough and wanted a bit of a rest on the backbenches of the Scottish Parliament.\u00a0 But she also clearly stated she was not giving up on politics and \u2018would be around\u2019 for some time to come.\u00a0 Unlike the Conservative shambolic Prime Ministerial resignations last year, she took questions from the media and answered them confidently, even receiving plaudits from seasoned political journalists like the Independent\u2019s Paul Waugh, taking a brief step back from the overwhelmingly hostile environment of the British press.<\/p>\n

Sturgeon\u2019s resignation received a rather more respectful response in Europe\u2019s capitals, with the Irish Taoiseach and the leader of Sinn Fein applauding her stance against the UK\u2019s Tory Brexit.<\/p>\n

Tory Prime Minister Rishi Sunak struck a more restrained mood, perhaps befitting his constitutional role and attempt to steady the Tory \u2018ship of state\u2019, than the more gleeful Scottish Tory opposition leader, Douglas Ross.\u00a0\u00a0 Both Labour leader Keir Starmer and his Scottish subordinate, Anas Sarwar, praised Sturgeon\u2019s public service.<\/p>\n

But behind the scenes they will all be rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of moving British politics firmly to the right, now that what is seen as the progressive and left wing Sturgeon is \u2018out of the way\u2019.<\/p>\n

The press and political commentators immediately started a frenzy at the prospects for a Starmer landslide at the next UK general elections.\u00a0 The irony that it came on the twentieth anniversary of the largest demonstration in British history against his mentor Tony Blair\u2019s support for the US war in Iraq, appeared lost on Keir Starmer.\u00a0 He began the day pronouncing that like Blair he too would ignore the wishes of Labour members in refusing to allow former leader Jeremy Corbyn to stand as a Labour candidate in the north London constituency he has represented for forty years.<\/p>\n

For Labour\u2019s increasingly right wing leadership it was seen as a successful day \u2013 \u2018Corbyn Out, Sturgeon Out\u2019 \u2013 in what they now see as Starmer\u2019s passage to becoming next British Prime Minister.<\/p>\n

But what is the reality of both Sturgeon\u2019s period in office and the prospects for what will follow her resignation?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Socially progressive<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Nicola Sturgeon is undoubtedly a consummate political performer, perhaps the most talented mainstream politician in the British Isles, compared to the buffoons that have headed Tory UK governments at Westminster.\u00a0 In only eight years as Scottish First Minister, Sturgeon saw five of them go through the doors of 10 Downing Street.\u00a0 She also saw out three UK Labour leaders and five leaders of the Liberal Democrats (a one time governing party at both Westminster and Holyrood).<\/p>\n

Her calm and measured response to the Covid pandemic through her daily broadcasts on TV had a major reassuring effect on Scottish people, particularly compared to the chaotic disarray of the UK Westminster government, as she became the most popular political leader across the UK state \u2026 by a long way.<\/p>\n

But Sturgeon is also highly socially progressive.\u00a0 An outspoken supporter of feminism, she had defended abortion rights absolutely unequivocally since entering politics and in the words of left wing writer Owen Jones \u201cshe\u2019ll go down as a hero to LGBTQ people<\/em>\u201d for her defence of LGBTQ rights.<\/p>\n

The Tory and unionist press overwhelmingly claim that public opinion is against her stance in the recent \u2018row\u2019 on trans rights and even claim that this has caused her demise.\u00a0 Sturgeon is depicted in the Tory press as the \u2018architect\u2019 of the recent Gender Reform Recognition (Scotland) Bill that passed the Scottish Parliament last December and was struck down by the Tory Government at Westminster last month in their right wing \u2018culture war\u2019 against trans people.\u00a0 But the GRR Bill was passed by an overwhelming two thirds majority in the Scottish Parliament and as well as most in Sturgeon\u2019s SNP, three other Parties voted strongly for it \u2013 Scottish Labour, Scottish Greens and the Liberal Democrats.\u00a0 The latter also joined the SNP and other opposition parties at Westminster, but not UK Labour, in opposing the unprecedented striking down of the progressive legislation.<\/p>\n

As with previous progressive social legislation in the UK \u2013 ending capital punishment, decriminalising homosexuality, gay marriage \u2013 lawmakers can lead public opinion, and reforms that elicited reactionary vocal opposition at the time become mainstream soon after, even if they do have to be constantly defended.\u00a0 The support for de-medicalisation and self-ID in the GRR Bill is overwhelmingly supported by medical and health professionals across Scotland and the British state. It is also backed by those campaigning for women\u2019s rights and supporting victims of sexual abuse, by the LGBTQ community, and, significantly, by the vast majority of young people in Scotland.\u00a0 It even has support from the United Nations, World Health Organisation and an increasing numbers of states \u2013 most recently the Spanish state and Finland have legislated for similar processes.<\/p>\n

The recent conviction of rapist Isla Bryson and her imprisonment briefly in an isolation wing of a Scottish women\u2019s prison has become a \u2018cause c\u00e9l\u00e8bre\u2019 amongst reactionary opponents of trans rights, keen to put the labels \u2018trans\u2019 and \u2018rapists\u2019 in the same sentence.\u00a0\u00a0 We\u2019ve seen this before when it was almost impossible to read a newspaper article without the word \u2018paedophile\u2019 being included with the word \u2018gay\u2019.\u00a0 But in fact Sturgeon intervened immediately in the Bryson case, an independent action by the Scottish Prison Service, to say that she agreed 100% with the Scottish Rape Crisis organisation, a supporter of the GRR Bill, that a rapist should not be accommodated in a women\u2019s prison.<\/p>\n

The brutal murder of trans teenager Brianna Ghey in a Cheshire park and the announcement by the police in the last few days that they are now investigating it as a potential \u2018hate crime\u2019 has sent shock waves through the LGBTQ and young community as the anti-trans rhetoric has been dialled up by Westminster Tory politicians presenting an \u2018anti-woke\u2019 agenda to the declining Tory party faithful.\u00a0 The turnout by young people at massive vigils across the British state<\/p>\n

\"\"
Over 1,000 people join vigil for murdered trans girl Brianna Ghey in Glasgow’s George Square on day after Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

presents a counter trend and to most of the young people in Scotland Nicola Sturgeon is identified, in Owen Jones\u2019 words, as a heroine rather than a villain.<\/p>\n

While the recent abuse that Nicola Sturgeon has received over her support for trans rights has created a vile political atmosphere, it is wide of the mark to suggest that it is the main reason for her resignation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Independence at crossroads<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

While the trans rights issue has dominated recent media attacks on Sturgeon, the underlying concern of the British ruling class remains the prospect of Scottish independence and the potential break up of the UK state.<\/p>\n

Sturgeon was first elected to what was then the new Scottish Parliament in 1999.\u00a0 The SNP has defined itself as \u2018within the mainstream of European social democracy\u2019 for decades and narrowly became the ruling party at the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood in 2007 holding government leadership throughout the 16 years since, with Nicola Sturgeon being a permanent feature: firstly as Deputy First Minister and Health Secretary, then taking over as First Minster from Alex Salmond in 2014.<\/p>\n

In 2011, the SNP won a freak majority at Holyrood under an electoral system that was deliberately designed by the Labour Party to prevent such a thing occurring.\u00a0 The SNP manifesto contained a commitment to a referendum on independence and sensing an easy victory then Tory UK Prime Minister David Cameron agreed to the Scottish Parliament legislating for such a referendum.\u00a0 Support for independence began at just 25% in opinion polls, but by the time of the referendum in 2014, shocked Westminster politicians saw polls indicating a majority.\u00a0 A huge rearguard last minute right wing action and a promise of \u2018jam tomorrow\u2019 in the form of a \u2018Vow\u2019 by the Westminster parties led to a 45\/55 defeat of independence in the referendum, but with the highest turnout in any Scottish or UK election and the enfranchisement of both 16\/17 year olds and all EU citizens living in Scotland.\u00a0 A key part of the argument for staying in the UK was that an independent Scotland would be outside the European Union and unable to join due to a veto by states opposed to secessionist movements, particularly the Spanish state.<\/p>\n

But a major part of the shift to independence was among Scottish working class communities who turned out in large numbers to vote, alarmed at the austerity policies being pursued by the Tory\/LibDem coalition at Westminster that Scotland hadn\u2019t voted for (Scotland voted overwhelming Labour for most of the twentieth century).\u00a0 The Labour Party\u2019s alliance with the Tories in a joint \u2018Better Together\u2019 campaign against independence created a huge swing away from the party among its traditional working class base.<\/p>\n

The joy of the right wing parties at the defeat of independence was short-lived, however, as the SNP under the new leadership of Sturgeon surged at the 2015 UK general election winning nearly 50% of the vote and 56 out of the 59 Scottish seats \u2013 with the Labour Party losing 40 of its 41 seats, a cataclysmic result for Labour after generations of domination of Scottish politics.<\/p>\n

In 2016, the Westminster Tories again gambled on a referendum, this time over UK membership of the EU.\u00a0 But while the shock result at a UK level was 52\/48 in favour of leaving the EU, Scotland voted overwhelmingly 62\/38 to remain in the EU (the north of Ireland also voted 56\/44 to remain).\u00a0 The Tory party rapidly became taken over by the extreme right wing politics of the UK Independence Party (UKIP).\u00a0 Although Nicola Sturgeon proposed a compromise of the UK state leaving the EU but remaining in the single market (the so-called \u2018Norway\u2019 option), this was rejected by the rightward moving Tories, intoxicated with the \u2018Brexit\u2019 process and encouraged by the elevation of Donald Trump to US president.<\/p>\n

Sturgeon, the SNP and the wider independence movement began agitating against Brexit and for a further referendum on independence on the grounds that if the UK state left the EU the circumstances in 2014 had changed significantly.\u00a0 Sensing the possibility that a second Scottish independence referendum (\u2018indyref2\u2019) could result in victory for independence, the Westminster parties, including the Labour Party then led by Jeremy Corbyn, closed ranks to deny that such a referendum would take place.<\/p>\n

There are many reasons why the UK state fears the disruption that would be caused\u00a0 by Scottish independence to its continuity as one of the leading imperialist powers.\u00a0 But central to the debate is the issue of nuclear weapons.\u00a0 The UK state holds a seat on the UN Security Council by virtue of its ownership of a nuclear arsenal.\u00a0 These weapons are now exclusively located in Scotland, in the Trident missile system within submarines stationed just along the Clyde river at Faslane, just 40 miles from the centre of Scotland\u2019s biggest city of Glasgow.\u00a0 There is nowhere else in the rest of the UK state where such weapons could be located, at least in the short term.\u00a0\u00a0 The SNP has always been a pro-independence party and moderately social democratic, but has also opposed nuclear weapons and is committed to an independent Scotland removing nuclear weapons.\u00a0 Even though the SNP reversed its position to one of supporting membership of NATO in 2013 under previous leader Alex Salmond, and there are some in the party who would be willing to compromise over a \u2018Guantanamo-style\u2019 leasing of the Faslane base to the rump UK state, the majority of the party including Nicola Sturgeon remain committed to removing nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

Sturgeon has repeatedly said that as well as joining the SNP as a 16 year old teenager opposed to the Tory attacks on the working class community she was brought up in, equally she also joined the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) to oppose nuclear weapons at the same time.<\/p>\n

For this prime reason, acceptance of Scottish independence is totally unacceptable to the British ruling class \u2013 and therefore it is unremittingly hostile to both the SNP and to Sturgeon.<\/p>\n

Since the 2016 EU referendum, the British ruling class has therefore used everything at its disposal to prevent Scottish independence by blocking a referendum.\u00a0 Despite this and in the face of the increasing economic calamity for Scottish workers represented by the Brexit process, the SNP together with Scottish Green Party put forward in their manifesto for the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections the demand for a second independence referendum in the early part of the five year parliamentary session.\u00a0 The SNP and the more left wing Scottish Green Party won a clear parliamentary majority and following a governmental agreement between the two parties that saw two Green ministers enter government for the first time anywhere in Britain, Sturgeon and the SNP\/SGP proceeded to prepare a Bill for an independence referendum regardless of whether the increasingly dysfunctional Westminster government approved.<\/p>\n

But the legal basis for a referendum was not established and there was much caution in SNP circles including from Nicola Sturgeon that a constitutional referendum was the only option.\u00a0 The Scottish government legal officer therefore asked the UK Supreme Court for a ruling, that took place last autumn.\u00a0 The legal basis for referendums is actually quite well established in the UK state even though it is a relatively recent phenomenon (since 1973) and there were some legal hopes of a positive ruling.\u00a0 However the conservative judges in the UK Supreme Court took a particularly narrow legal view of the statute establishing the Scottish Parliament and the wider framework for referendums, and ruled unanimously (and unsurprisingly) against any unilateral action by the Scottish Parliament.<\/p>\n

Given the stubborn and anti-democratic refusal of the UK Tories to approve a referendum, Nicola Sturgeon set out the case for \u2018Plan B\u2019 \u2013 using the next UK general election in Scotland as a \u2018proxy\u2019 referendum.<\/p>\n

This is filled with problems and has created a huge debate within both the normally disciplined SNP and in the wider independence movement.\u00a0 A special conference of the SNP was due to take place on 19th<\/sup>\u00a0March \u2013 reportedly it is being thrown into uncertainty by Sturgeon\u2019s resignation, though Sturgeon herself actually gave the ability to take a decision on tactics unfettered by the impact on leadership as one of the reasons for the timing of her resignation.<\/p>\n

While Sturgeon is seen in the UK media as unremitting in her opposition to Brexit and support for independence, the effect of her constitutionalist tactics has been to stall the independence movement within Scotland, which as recently as 2018 had been able to mobilise 100,000 on the streets and polls in 2021 showed a significant move towards a sustained if small majority.\u00a0 The lack of a sustained substantial majority for independence and the lack of a tactic to achieve independence from the SNP has had an effect on the movement.\u00a0 While still strong and while creating a clear electoral divide that has given the SNP between 40 and 50% of the vote in elections, it is not yet strong enough to achieve success.\u00a0 The dangers of a Quebec-style second lost referendum are significant.<\/p>\n

Some in the independence movement have become frustrated and this led to a split in the SNP in 2021 when former SNP leader Alex Salmond set up a rival party, Alba, ostensibly to \u2018game\u2019 the Holyrood electoral system and win an overwhelming pro-independence majority.\u00a0 But since the unsuccessful prosecution of Salmond on sexual assault charges alleged to have been committed while he was First Minister, he has become a highly divisive figure.\u00a0 Even though found not guilty, his behaviour towards women was judged, even by himself, to be \u2018inappropriate\u2019 and this has had a significant effect on his popularity.\u00a0 The Alba party also became a repository for those engaging in conspiracy theorists who believed that Sturgeon conducted a vendetta against Salmond, while those who defend Sturgeon point out that she simply stood up for women\u2019s rights in the workplace and had no part in the legal case.\u00a0 The Alba Party flopped electorally and has increasingly become a repository for reactionary politics \u2013 it strongly opposed the GRR Bill for example, and has joined the chorus of those accusing Sturgeon of being a \u2018destroyer of women\u2019s rights\u2019.<\/p>\n

So, the independence movement now faces a watershed.\u00a0 Despite the hopes of the Westminster Tories, Labour and the media, the movement is not going away even despite Sturgeon\u2019s departure from centre stage.\u00a0 Young people including many of those who voted at 16 in the 2014 referendum are overwhelmingly supportive of independence, with polls showing 75%+ support and that reflects in electoral support for the SNP and Scottish Green Party.\u00a0 In fact among those of working age and those who have been through tertiary education, there is a clear majority in Scotland for independence.\u00a0 Polls show that those in the lowest paid jobs (working class) are more strongly in favour of independence than those in highly paid work (middle class) and again this maintains a strong SNP electoral support.\u00a0 But there is a large section of retired older and generally less educated people who are strongly against independence and these factors lead to the current 50\/50 balance impasse.<\/p>\n

The demographic changes however are in favour of a substantial majority for independence as a long term goal,\u00a0 despite all the short term routes being largely closed by Westminster.<\/p>\n

The key question for the independence movement is how to \u2018reboot\u2019 the movement as a long term struggle and avoid the short termism of being side-tracked by the machinations of constitutional politics at Westminster and Holyrood.\u00a0 In order to build a permanent majority in Scottish society, the movement needs to focus on an alternative vision of life in an independent Scotland.\u00a0 This means ditching the \u2018business-as-usual\u2019 approach to Scottish independence that simply sees it as a continuation of the current SNP regime with more levers and recognition on the international stage.<\/p>\n

Independence poses a paradigm shift, with the opportunity to develop working class interests and a different form of society that is more socially progressive and supports those affected by the ravages of capitalism.\u00a0 While there are aspirations for a single united movement, an \u2018Independence Convention\u2019 is put forward by Alex Salmond, there is a real problem with the toxic nature of those in the movement who have a socially conservative or reactionary position on issues such as trans rights that probably makes coexistence difficult if not impossible . This has been shown by the demise and disappearance of the \u2018NOW Scotland\u2019 movement and the decline in attendance for marches by \u2018All Under One Banner\u2019.<\/p>\n

A key issue is the climate and ecological crisis.\u00a0 Most activists recognise that independence would give the opportunity to tackle Scotland\u2019s economic over-dependence on fossil fuel extraction and give a more rapid transition to renewables.\u00a0 Friends of the Earth Scotland supports Scottish independence.\u00a0\u00a0 The hosting of COP26 in 2021 in Glasgow gave the climate crisis a major focus.\u00a0 While most of the issues are controlled by the UK government at Westminster, the Scottish government and parliament does have an important role to play.\u00a0 In general the SNP, which championed oil extraction in the 1970s, has been slow to respond to the climate emergency seeing the jobs tied up in fossil industries as a priority.\u00a0 The Scottish government does lacks the legal and fiscal resources to effect a really significant \u2018just transition\u2019, even if it wanted to, but it can be a much more effective vehicle for making the case.\u00a0 Instead its initiatives tend to be marginal.\u00a0\u00a0 But that doesn\u2019t mean the battle should not be continued and there are active groups in Scotland protesting the UK government\u2019s massive expansion of oil and gas fields, such as the Cambo and Rosebank fields, and continued dependence on fossil fuel industries.\u00a0 Groups include Climate Camp Scotland direct action group and Extinction Rebellion Scotland.\u00a0 Such campaigns cannot wait for Scottish independence or the SNP to get their policies right and must be taken up vigorously now.\u00a0 So far the involvement of the Scottish Greens in the government has been disappointing in its outcomes, free bus travel for young people up to 21 is a step forward but we are still a long way from a full free public transport system to tackle poverty and the climate crisis. The need is for the climate justice movement to head up mass protest at the UK government, while the need for independence and a strategy for ecological change needs developing and fighting for.<\/p>\n

The opportunity is therefore presented to those groups such as the Radical Independence Campaign, Socialists for Independence and the Scottish Socialist Party to put aside tactical differences and seek to build a wing of the movement that supports strikes, defends abortion and trans rights, fights government cuts, challenges climate change and looks instead to putting the case for a better Scotland for the many.\u00a0 In doing so they could win support from those who might see Labour as the solution to 13 years of Tory rule at Westminster.\u00a0 In the longer term there needs to be a left wing party able to challenge both the SNP and Labour on the electoral terrain.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

SNP elects a new leader<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

The SNP leadership election is the first contested election for nearly 20 years.\u00a0 However in 2004, the last time the party had to ballot its members, its membership was only 6,000 and it had won just 27 seats at Holyrood and 5 seats at Westminster, a very narrow pool.\u00a0 Now it has around 100,000 members, and has won 64 seats at Holyrood and 48 at Westminster.<\/p>\n

Sturgeon has dominated the party in recent years such that there is no obvious successor so it seems likely there will be quite a few candidates coming forward.<\/p>\n

A real and genuine fear is that the party could lurch to the right on social policy.\u00a0 The Finance Secretary Kate Forbes is seen as a challenger \u2013 despite being articulate, educated and a Gaellic speaker from the Highlands, she is fiscally conservative and an active member of the \u2018Wee Frees\u2019, the tiny conservative Free Church of Scotland that bans gay marriage among its congregation.\u00a0 She is on maternity leave currently and so was not required to vote on the GRR Bill, which she had voiced opposition to.\u00a0 It would be a real problem for Scottish LGBTQ politics if she were to get elected, as would a proxy candidacy for her from Ash Regan, the only SNP minister who resigned over the GRR Bill.<\/p>\n

Much more likely is a duller male candidate.\u00a0 John Swinney, the current Deputy, has been leader in the past but would not be a particularly impressive candidate.\u00a0 More likely is the equally dull but considered \u2018safe pair of hands\u2019 or even \u2018continuity Sturgeon\u2019 figure of Angus Robertson, former leader of the party at Westminster and current Constitution and Culture Secretary.\u00a0 However other candidates could emerge and there will be significant jockeying for position in the days ahead, though the candidate will have to be an MSP due to the role of First Minister, so that rules out any of the Westminster figures.<\/p>\n

The SNP constitution states the election takes 133 days but that is almost certainly likely to be shortened.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Labour Prospects<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

In the recent period of impasse over independence, attention across Scotland has focussed more on the cost-of-living crisis afflicting working people across the UK state.\u00a0 Soaring energy bills are causing massive instability and wages are not keeping pace with rapidly rising inflation on basic foodstuffs leading to the current wave of strikes \u2013 of which the most prominent current examples in Scotland are school teachers, civil servants, postal and rail workers and university staff.\u00a0 The SNP administration at Holyrood has attempted to buy off some sections of the public sector workforce from striking, for example in the National Health Service (NHS) and on the ScotRail train franchise it now runs, by offering slightly higher pay offers than those employed through the Westminster government.\u00a0 A temporary rent freeze has given some respite on costs, but this has recently been rolled back.\u00a0 The Scottish Government has a cash-limited budget allocated by Westminster, no borrowing powers and only limited tax raising powers of its own.\u00a0 That cash is running on empty and seems to have reached an impasse with the current claim for 10% pay rises by Scottish teachers.\u00a0 The school strikes on 28 February\/1 March are now hugely important as a test of the union resistance and the administration in Holyrood.<\/p>\n

The Scottish government budget from 1 April faces many significant demands, with the priority for health services in the wake of the covid pandemic being unavoidable.\u00a0 This has led to huge pressures on other aspects of the budget particularly those for local councils.\u00a0 The SNP minority administration at the largest council in Glasgow faces a staggering \u00a3100 million pounds of cuts to jobs and services.\u00a0 The council budget crisis is also causing tensions between the SNP and their Scottish Green Party allies with councillors expressing worries about the impact of the cuts.<\/p>\n

For the Scottish Labour Party the current strike wave and the likelihood of council cuts has seemed like a lifeline to rebuild support among working class voters.\u00a0 In a totally opposite way to Starmer\u2019s UK Labour Party at Westminster, the Scottish Labour Party has urged its elected members to support strike pickets and protests called by unions.<\/p>\n

However across Scotland, 30 out of the 32 councils have no single party in a majority.\u00a0 The UK Labour Party instruction is that there should be no coalition with the SNP as this would be seen to endanger the chances of Labour winning support among English voters at the next UK general election.\u00a0 In fact polls indicate that most voters in England, including Labour voters, are actually pretty relaxed about the question of Scottish independence seeing it as a question largely for Scottish people.\u00a0 The Labour Party in Wales has a governmental agreement with the pro-independence Plaid Cymru and has permitted a governmental commission on the constitution to consider independence, with no apparent adverse effect on electoral support for Labour.<\/p>\n

The refusal to make any agreement with the SNP,\u00a0 despite them holding nearly twice as many council seats as Labour, means that in council areas where Labour is stronger, typically in second place, they have made agreements to take control with the Tories and other unionists, including in one council a fringe ultra right wing party.\u00a0\u00a0 This tactic seems certain to backfire as some Labour councillors are forced into making cuts, while screaming that it\u2019s all the \u2018bad SNP\u2019s fault\u2019.<\/p>\n

A fundamental change has taken place since 2014 in Labour support in Scotland.\u00a0 While the press is hyping up the prospects for Labour in the aftermath of Sturgeon\u2019s resignation, the reality on the ground is somewhat different.\u00a0 Even with a much duller leader like Angus Robertson, the SNP will still be a formidable electoral force.\u00a0\u00a0 A small decline in support for both the SNP and independence is likely, but the SNP is miles ahead of Labour and Tory support, particularly among young people and workers.\u00a0 Labour\u2019s desperate support for the union, with Starmer routinely appearing with not one but two union flags behind him, does not endear them to Scottish voters any longer.<\/p>\n

Many of Labour\u2019s proposals in their General Election manifesto will seem a pale imitation of already existing SNP policies at Holyrood \u2013 Starmer is even prepared to drop Corbyn\u2019s opposition to student tuition fees, a policy that was long swept away by the SNP.\u00a0 Every time Starmer goes on TV promising to end a few Tory policies in England, Scots voters will think little of it.\u00a0 Starmer\u2019s tepid policies on energy and support for continuing domination by profiteering oil and gas corporations will impress no-one.\u00a0 The tactics of Scottish Labour depend entirely on a collapsing Tory vote that has nowhere else to go but into Labour.\u00a0 But there seems little chance of them eating into the mammoth SNP vote that they need to restore their fortunes.\u00a0 Labour has sunk to the low watermark of one seat and could well win a half dozen more (though every seat they gain from the SNP, the SNP are likely to gain one from Tories).\u00a0 The return of right wing Labour has-beens like Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy, the architects of \u2018Better Together\u2019 and the loss of 40 seats in 2015, is unsurprising as they sniff the prospect of seats in a Labour government at Westminster.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

The resignation of Sturgeon represents a sea change in Scottish politics.\u00a0 She is an adept politician in every way \u2013 highly principled in some respects, but deeply tied to constitutionalism, fiscal conservatism and constrained in other respects.\u00a0 But the predictions that her departure means the end of the battle for independence or for socially progressive politics is wide of the mark.\u00a0 There is a small danger of a lurch to the right, but more likely is a continuation of SNP dominance but failure to break the impasse.\u00a0 Labour\u2019s electoral prospects will probably rise at the margins, they could scarcely get lower.\u00a0 But the radical wing of the independence movement needs to grasp the mettle \u2013 focus on working class economic interests, progressive politics, and an alternative vision of Scotland to neo-liberal capitalism.<\/p>\n

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