{"id":1541,"date":"2022-12-06T18:30:43","date_gmt":"2022-12-06T18:30:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ecosocialist.scot\/?p=1541"},"modified":"2022-12-06T18:30:43","modified_gmt":"2022-12-06T18:30:43","slug":"cop27-climate-fossil-victory-in-sharm-el-sheikh-only-the-fight-remains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ecosocialist.scot\/?p=1541","title":{"rendered":"COP27 (Climate) \u2013 Fossil victory in Sharm el-Sheikh: only the fight remains"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Daniel Tanuro writes on the COP27.<\/p>\n

A few days before the opening of COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, I wrote that this conference would be a \u201cnew height of greenwashing, green capitalism and repression\u201d. It was a mistake. Greenwashing and repression were more than ever on the shores of the Red Sea, but green capitalism suffered a setback, and fossils won a clear victory.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

In matters of climate, we can define green capitalism as the fraction of employers and their political representatives who claim that the disaster can be stopped by a market policy that encourages companies to adopt green or \u201clow carbon\u201d energy technologies, so that it would be possible to reconcile economic growth, growth in profits and rapid reduction in emissions, and even to achieve \u201cnet zero emissions\u201d in 2050. This component, known as \u201cmitigation\u201d of climate change, is then supplemented by a so-called \u201cadaptation\u201d component to the now inevitable effects of global warming, and a \u201cfunding\u201d component (mainly aimed at southern countries). On these two levels too, the proponents of green capitalism believe that the market can do the job – they even see an opportunity for capital.<\/p>\n

From Copenhagen to Paris, from \u201ctop down\u201d to \u201cbottom-up\u201d<\/h3>\n

The agreement reached in Paris at COP21 (2015) was typically a manifestation of this policy. It stipulated that the parties would commit to taking action to ensure that global warming \u201cremains well below 2\u00b0C, while continuing efforts not to exceed 1.5\u00b0C\u201d. It should be remembered that COP19 (Copenhagen, 2009) had buried the idea of a global distribution of the \u201c2\u00b0C carbon budget\u201d (the quantity of carbon that can still be sent into the atmosphere to have a reasonable probability of not exceeding 2\u00b0C during this century) according to the responsibilities and the differentiated capacities of the countries. Such a global distribution was (and remains) the most rational approach to combining climate efficacity and social justice, but this \u201ctop-down\u201d approach involved settling the accounts of imperialism, which the United States and the European Union European did not want at any price. COP20 (Cancun, 2010) therefore adopted a \u201cbottom-up\u201c approach, more compatible with the neoliberal air of the time: each country would determine its \u201cnational contribution\u201d to the climate effort, and we would see, in the course of the annual COP, 1\u00b0) if the sum of the efforts is sufficient; 2) if the distribution of efforts complies with the principle of \u201ccommon but differentiated responsibility\u201d which is enshrined in the Framework Convention on Climate (UN, Rio, 1992).<\/p>\n

As a reminder, this Framework Convention affirmed the will of the parties to avoid \u201ca dangerous anthropogenic disturbance of the climate system\u201d. Six years after Copenhagen, twenty-three years after Rio, Paris finally came to clarify a little what should be understood by this. This is the formula that we recalled above: \u201cstay well below 2\u00b0C while continuing efforts not to exceed 1.5\u00b0C\u2026\u201d. But one ambiguity hits you in the face: at the end of the day, where is the threshold of dangerousness? At 2\u00b0C or 1.5\u00b0C? Asked to shed light on the answer to be given to this question, the IPCC submitted a specific report from which it is very clear that half a degree more or less leads to enormous differences in terms of impact. In the process, COP26 (Glasgow, 2021) gave satisfaction to the representatives of the small island states who are sounding the alarm bell: we must stay below 1.5\u00b0C of warming.<\/p>\n

But how to do it? The gap between the \u201cnational contributions\u201c of the countries and the path to follow to stay below 1.5\u00b0C (or to exceed this threshold only very slightly, with the possibility of going back below quite quickly) is an abyss: on the basis of the national contributions, warming will easily exceed the objective. The drafters of the Paris agreement were aware of this \u201cemission gap\u201d. They therefore decided that the parties\u2019 climate commitments would be subject to an \u201cambition-raising\u201d exercise every five years, in the hope of gradually bridging the gap between the commitments and the objective to be achieved. Problem: six years later, the objective to be reached (1.5\u00b0C maximum) has become much more restrictive, and the time available to reach it has become ever shorter.<\/p>\n

From Paris to Glasgow: \u201craising ambitions\u201d?<\/h3>\n

In Glasgow, the message from scientists was crystal clear: a) global emissions reductions must start now, b) the global peak must be reached no later than 2025, c) CO2 emissions (and methane!) must decrease by 45 per cent globally by 2030, and d) climate justice implies that the richest one per cent divides its emissions by thirty while the poorest 50 per cent will multiply them by three. All this, without mentioning the gigantic efforts to be made in terms of adaptation and financing, particularly in poor countries…<\/p>\n

In this context, Glasgow could only note the accelerated obsolescence of the five-year strategy of \u201cenhancing ambitions\u201c adopted in Paris: no one could seriously claim that a round table every five years would make it possible to fill the emissions gap. In a very tense context, the British Presidency then proposed that the \u201cmitigation\u201d component be subject to review every year during the \u201cdecisive decade\u201d 2020-2030, and this procedure was adopted. The presidency also proposed to decide on the rapid elimination of coal but, on this point, it came up against a veto from India, so that the participants had to content themselves with deciding on a reduction (\u201cphasing down\u201d) rather than an elimination (\u201cphasing out\u201d) of the use of this fuel.<\/p>\n

In Sharm el-Sheikh: place your bets, there\u2019s no more time left<\/h3>\n

At the end of COP27, the results are quite clear: there is almost nothing left of these commitments made in Glasgow.<\/p>\n

The annual raising of ambitions has not taken place. All the countries should have updated their \u201cnational contributions\u201d: only thirty complied with the exercise, and even then, very insufficiently (see my article preceding the COP). It is very likely that this attempt will be the last and that we will henceforth be content with the process of five-year reviews provided for by COP21… while hypocritically pretending to ignore the impossibility by this means of respecting the 1.5\u00b0C limit!<\/p>\n

COP26 had adopted a \u201cmitigation work programme\u201d which COP27 was supposed to implement. It was content to decide that the process would be \u201cnon-prescriptive, non-punitive\u201d and \u201cwould not lead to new objectives\u201d. Moreover, the objective of the 1.5\u00b0C maximum, adopted in Glasgow, came very near to being explicitly called into question (it was explicitly called into question, outside the plenary session, by the representatives of Russia and Saudi Arabia, not to mention the trial balloons launched by China and India at certain G20 meetings).<\/p>\n

Nothing was decided to materialize the \u201cphasing down\u201d of coal. The Indian delegation, cleverly, proposed a text on the eventual phasing out of all fossil fuels (not only coal, but also oil and gas). Surprise: eighty countries, \u201cdeveloped\u201d and \u201cdeveloping\u201d, supported it, but the Egyptian presidency did not even mention it. The final statement says nothing about it. The term \u201cfossil fuels\u201d appears only once in the text, which calls for \u201caccelerating efforts to reduce (the use of) coal without abatement and the elimination of inefficient subsidies to fossil fuels\u201d. The formula is strictly identical to that which was adopted in Glasgow\u2026 (the expression \u201ccoal without abatement\u201d refers to combustion installations without CO2 capture for geological sequestration or industrial use\u2026). According to some leaks from the debates between heads of delegations, the Saudis and the Russians opposed any further mention of fossil fuels in the text. The Russian representative is said to have even declared on this occasion: \u201cIt is unacceptable. We cannot make the energy situation worse\u201d (Carbon brief<\/i>, Key Outcomes of COP27). It\u2019s the pot calling the kettle black!<\/p>\n

We thought we had seen everything in terms of greenwashing, but no: some decisions taken in Sharm -el-Sheikh open up the risk that pollution rights could be counted twice. Paris had decided on the principle of a \u201cnew market mechanism\u201d to take over from the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism, set up by the Kyoto Protocol). From now on, the rights market will have two speeds: on the one hand a market for emission credits, on the other hand a free market for \u201cmitigation contributions\u201d, on which nothing stands in the way of the so-called emission reductions being counted twice (once by the seller and once by the buyer!). In addition, countries that conclude bilateral emission reduction agreements will be free to decide that the means implemented are \u201cconfidential\u201d… and therefore unverifiable!<\/p>\n

The very fashionable theme of \u201ccarbon removal\u201d from the atmosphere considerably increases the risks of greenwashing on the emission credits market. Several methods and technologies could theoretically be used, but there is a great danger that they will serve as a substitute for reducing emissions. So, things have to be very strictly defined and framed. Especially when they involve the use of land areas for energy purposes, because this use obviously risks coming into conflict with human food production and the protection of biodiversity. A previously designated technical body was to look into the problem. It is faced with such a mass of proposals which are contested, or which have never been tested, that the worst is to be feared, pushed forward by an alliance between fossil fuels and agribusiness.<\/p>\n

\u201cLoss and damage\u201d: the tree that hides the forest<\/h3>\n

The media made much of the decision to create a fund for \u201closs and damage\u201d. This is a demand that poor countries and small island states have been putting forward for thirty years: the climatic disasters that they are experiencing are costing them dearly, whereas they are the product of the warming caused mainly by the developed capitalist countries; those responsible must therefore pay, through an ad hoc fund. The United States and the European Union have always opposed this demand, but in Sharm el-Sheikh, the pressure from \u201cdeveloping\u201d countries was too strong, it was no longer possible to quibble: either a fund was created, or it was the end of the COP process and a deep split between North and South. You should know that this \u201cSouth\u201d includes countries as different as the oil monarchies, China, and the so-called \u201cleast developed\u201d countries\u2026. To prevent all this little world from forming a bloc supported by the \u201canti-Western\u201d discourse of the Kremlin, Western imperialism could not afford to do nothing. The EU unblocked the situation by setting the following conditions: 1\u00b0) that the fund be supplemented by various sources of financing (including existing sources, and others, \u201cinnovative\u201d); 2) that its interventions benefit only the most vulnerable countries; 3\u00b0) that the COP \u201cenhances the ambitions\u201d of mitigation. The first two points have been met, not the third.<\/p>\n

The creation of the fund is undoubtedly a victory for the poorest countries, increasingly impacted by disasters such as the floods that recently hit Pakistan and Niger, or the typhoons that are increasingly ravaging the Philippines. But it is a symbolic victory, because COP27 only took a vague decision of principle. Who will pay? When? How much? And above all: to whom will the funds go? To the victims on the ground, or to the corrupt intermediaries? On all these issues, we can expect tough battles. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar will refuse to pay, citing the fact that the UN defines them as \u201cdeveloping countries\u201d. China will most likely do the same, arguing that it is contributing through bilateral agreements, as part of its \u201cNew Silk Roads\u201d. It is not tomorrow or the day after that capitalism will take its responsibilities in the face of the catastrophe for which it is responsible and which is destroying the existence of millions of men and women, in the South, but also in the North (even though the consequences there are, for the moment, less dramatic)\u2026<\/p>\n

The cries of victory over the \u201closs and damage\u201d fund are all the less justified since the other promises in terms of financing are still not honoured by the rich countries: the hundred billion dollars a year are not paid into the Green Fund for the Climate, and the commitment to double the resources of the adaptation fund has not materialized.<\/p>\n

A victory for fossils, acquired in the name of\u2026 the poorest!?<\/h3>\n

This is not the place to go into more detail, other publications have done it very well (Carbon Brief<\/i>,\u00a0Home Climate News<\/i>, CLARA, among others). The conclusion that emerges is that the climate policy of green capitalism, with its three components (mitigation, adaptation, financing) suffered a failure in Sharm el-Sheikh. Champion of green capitalism, the European Union almost walked out and slammed the door behind it. On the other hand, COP27 ended in a victory for fossil capital.<\/p>\n

This victory is first and foremost the result of the geopolitical context created by the exit (?) from the pandemic and accentuated by the Russian war of aggression against the Ukrainian people. We have entered a conjuncture of growing inter-imperialist rivalries and all-out rearmament. The wars, so to speak, are still only local, and not all have yet been declared, but the possibility of a conflagration haunts all capitalist leaders. Even if they do not want it, they are preparing for it, and this preparation, paradoxically, implies both the acceleration of the development of renewable energies and the increased use of fossil fuels, and therefore a considerable expansion of the possibilities of profit for the big capitalist groups of coal, oil, gas\u2026 and the finance capital behind it. It is no coincidence that, a year after Glasgow, the balloon of Mark Carney \u2019s GFANZ (Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero) is deflating: banks and pension funds are less willing than ever to comply with UN rules (\u201cRace for Zero net\u201d) on the banning of fossil fuel investments\u2026<\/p>\n

Secondly, it is the result of the very nature of the COP process. From Paris onwards, the capitalist sponsorship of these summits has experienced explosive growth. In Sharm el-Sheikh, it seems that quantity has turned into quality. Of the twenty corporate sponsors of the event, only two were not directly or indirectly linked to the fossil fuel industry. The industrial coal, oil and gas lobbies had sent more than 600 delegates to the conference. To this must be added the \u201cfossil moles\u201d in the delegations of many countries (including representatives of the Russian oligarchs under sanctions!), not to mention the official delegations composed solely of these \u201cmoles\u201d, in particular those of the fossil monarchies of the Middle East. All this fossil scum seems to have changed tactics: rather than denying climate change, or its \u201canthropogenic\u201d origin, or the role of CO2, the emphasis is now on \u201cclean fossils\u201d and technologies of \u201ccarbon removal\u201d. The delegation of the Emirates (one thousand delegates!) thus organized a \u201cside-event\u201d (on the sidelines of the official programme) to attract partners to collaborate on a vast project of \u201cgreen oil\u201c consisting (stupidly, because the technology is known) of injecting C02 into the oil deposits, to bring out more oil\u2026 the combustion of which will produce more CO2. The\u00a0Financial Times<\/i>, which is, it will be agreed, above all suspicion of anti-capitalism, was not afraid to go to the heart of the problem: the grip of fossils on the negotiations has grown so much that COP27 was in fact a trade fair for investments, in particular in gas (\u201cgreen energy\u201d, according to the European Union!), but also in oil, and even in coal (Financial Times<\/i>, 26\/11\/2022).<\/p>\n

A third factor came into play: the role of the Egyptian presidency. During the final plenary, the representative of Saudi Arabia thanked it, on behalf of his country and the Arab League. The dictatorship of General Sissi has indeed achieved a double performance: establishing itself as a country to be visited despite the fierce repression of all opposition, on the one hand; and on the other portraying himself as the spokesperson for peoples thirsty for climate justice, especially on the world\u2019s poorest continent…even when he was in fact acting in collusion with the most relentless of fossil exploiters, so wealthy that they no longer know what to do with their fortunes. In his final speech, the Saudi representative added: \u201cWe would like to emphasize that the Convention (the UN Framework Convention on Climate) must address the question of emissions, and not that of the origin of the emissions.\u201d In other words: let us exploit and burn fossil fuels, no need to remove this energy source, let\u2019s focus on how to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, by \u201coffsetting\u201c the emissions (capture and geological sequestration, tree plantations, purchases of “rights to pollute, etc.).<\/p>\n

Only the mass struggle remains<\/h3>\n

The Europeans, Frank Timmermans in the lead, are weeping and wailing: \u201cthe possibility of staying below 1.5\u00b0C is becoming extremely low and is disappearing\u201d, they say in substance. In effect. But whose fault is it? It would be too easy to unload the responsibility on others. In reality, these heralds of green capitalism are caught up in their own neoliberal logic: do they swear by the market? Well, fossils, which dominate the market, have dominated the COP\u2026 Time will tell if this is just a hiccup of history. COP28 will be chaired by the United Arab Emirates, so there is nothing to expect from that side. The answer, in fact, will depend on the evolution of the global geopolitical conjuncture, that is to say, ultimately, on social and ecological struggles. Either mass revolts will make the powerful tremble and force them to let go; in this case, whatever the source of the struggle (inflation? one assassination too many, as in Iran? a police confinement, as in China?), a space will open up to unite the social and the ecological, therefore also to impose measures in line with another climate policy. Or else the race to the abyss will continue.<\/p>\n

Nobody, this time, dared to say, as usual, that this COP, \u201calthough disappointing\u201d, nevertheless constituted \u201ca step forward\u201d. In fact, two things are now crystal clear: 1\u00b0) there will be no real \u201csteps forward\u201d without radical anti-capitalist and anti-productivist measures; 2\u00b0) they will not emerge from the COP, but from the struggles and their convergence.<\/p>\n

27 November 2022<\/i><\/p>\n

\u2022This article was written for the Gauche Anticapitaliste website<\/a> (Belgium supporters of the Fourth International).\u00a0 This version is republished from International Viewpoint<\/a> online news magazine of the Fourth Internationa<\/a>l : https:\/\/internationalviewpoint.org\/spip.php?article7898<\/a><\/i><\/p>\n

Daniel Tanuro, a certified agriculturalist and ecosocialist environmentalist, writes for\u00a0Gauche-Anticapitaliste-SAP<\/a>, Belgian section of the\u00a0Fourth International<\/a>. He is also the author of\u00a0Green Capitalism: why it can\u2019t work<\/a>\u00a0(Resistance Books, Merlin and IIRE, 2010) and Le moment Trump (Demopolis, 2018).<\/em><\/p>\n

Photo Copyright\u00a0 UNclimatechange \/ CC BY-NC-SA 2.0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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